Want to bet on whether the U.S. will attack Iran? An increasing number of people are using Polymarket and similar online prediction markets to gamble on war and other geopolitical events. The payoffs can be thousands, even millions.
These platforms have grown in popularity since the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, which drew significant interest from geopolitical gamblers. Although most online bets are still placed on sports, Polymarket, Kalshi, and other prediction markets have wagers available for a wide range of subjects — from the Oscars to Spotify charts and the potential for another U.S. government shutdown. Polymarket was valued at $8 billion in October, making its 27-year-old CEO, Shayne Coplan, a billionaire. Eighty-seven percent of accounts on the platform incur losses, according to market researcher LayerHub.
At a time of escalating geopolitical tensions, bets have swirled around U.S military action in Venezuela and Greenland, and potential Israeli strikes in Iran. Polymarket’s team creates betting events, while also inviting suggestions on Discord and X. In January, users created 191 new geopolitical events on Polymarket, a 260% increase compared to the same month last year.
So what are people betting on in the world of geopolitics?
Iran
Traders have put down large sums of money on potential U.S. and Israeli intervention in Iran, including one market whose volume has ballooned to $155 million as of February 2. The odds of a U.S. strike on Iran have dropped from 65% to 33% since President Donald Trump began hinting at ongoing negotiations with Iran on January 31.
Venezuela
An anonymous trader made $400,000 by betting on President Nicolás Maduro’s capture by U.S. forces just hours before the incident. Such wagers have sparked concerns over insider trading and loose regulations.
Following the Maduro raid, Polymarket has been rife with predictions about who might become the country’s new leader. Contenders included interim President Delcy Rodríguez with 66% odds and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado at 14%. Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth made the list, too, though their odds were below 1%.
Somalia
In late January, Trump said that Hegseth was “totally authorized” to attack Somali pirate boats, in addition to ongoing U.S. strikes against alleged drug boat traffickers in the Caribbean Sea. Polymarket traders began predicting that Somalia would be the next country the U.S. attacks, with odds of 89% as of February 2.
Unlike its competitor Kalshi, which received authorization from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2020, Polymarket is not regulated in the U.S. and remains largely restricted to invite-only users in the country. Despite this, the U.S. accounted for the platform’s highest user base at 25% in December 2025, according to digital marketing platform Semrush. Traders can use virtual private networks and crypto wallets to access the platform.
Betting events related to U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran have been among the most popular on the site.