Aggressive expansion of DRAM production lines
Parallel push into high–value-added memory segments
IPO-driven capital inflows expected to accelerate investment
As the global memory market rapidly reorganizes around server-oriented products, supply gaps have emerged in consumer memory. Chinese manufacturers are moving quickly to exploit this opening, seeking to expand their footprint into NAND flash and high-bandwidth memory (HBM). ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), in particular, is pressing ahead with plans for a stock market listing this year to raise large-scale funding, a move expected to further accelerate the pace of capital investment. The industry is watching closely, viewing this shift as a potential key to easing memory supply constraints.
Signs of an Intensifying China-Led Supply Push
According to IT industry outlet Digitimes on the 3rd (local time), the recent global shortage of memory has opened opportunities for Chinese players such as Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) and CXMT to expand their market presence. While major suppliers including Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron concentrate their resources on higher-margin server memory with strong customer demand, supply conditions for consumer segments—smartphones, PCs, and automotive applications—have loosened comparatively. The publication noted that “a change in supply priorities has created gaps within the global memory market.”
Chinese memory makers have moved aggressively in response. YMTC is working to pull forward the start-up of its third Wuhan fabrication plant from the original 2027 target to the second half of this year. To do so, it is optimizing processes on legacy equipment and accelerating localization of tools to overcome restrictions on foreign equipment imports, reportedly clearing many technical hurdles in the process. Although YMTC’s attempt to enter Apple’s supply chain was blocked after it was placed on the U.S. export control list in 2022, the company has since focused on Southeast Asia—including Vietnam—and the domestic market, setting a goal of lifting its market share in those regions to 15%.
CXMT, meanwhile, is building a large-scale fabrication facility in Shanghai with capacity up to three times that of its Hefei headquarters. Equipment installation is scheduled to begin this year, with full-scale mass production of DRAM for servers, PCs, and automotive use planned for the first half of next year. If these plans materialize, industry forecasts see CXMT’s share of the global DRAM market rising from about 11% in 2025 to 13.9% by 2027. CXMT has already secured domestic technology giants such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu as key customers, establishing relatively stable sales channels.
This momentum is becoming more pronounced as the memory market enters a recovery phase. With AI server demand pushing overall memory prices higher, supply gaps in consumer memory have yet to close. An industry source said that while Chinese firms initially prioritized easing domestic semiconductor shortages, global electronics manufacturers are increasingly evaluating the feasibility of using Chinese-made memory. Once Chinese volumes flow into the market, the source added, high-price strategies pursued by Samsung and SK hynix may lose effectiveness, making Chinese supply a potential lever for easing shortages.
Technology Expansion Based on Shared Wafer and Stacking Processes
China’s push into the semiconductor market is not limited to DRAM. Expansion is occurring simultaneously across NAND flash—using similar wafer processes—and HBM, which stacks memory to boost bandwidth. In NAND flash, YMTC’s production ramp stands out. The company has adopted a “fast-track” strategy, pre-installing some equipment while new fabs are still under construction to bring lines online earlier. This approach aims to begin mass production within just one year of ground-breaking.
On the technology front, YMTC has secured 270-layer 3D NAND capability, rapidly narrowing the gap with Samsung Electronics (286 layers) and SK hynix (321 layers). Yield rates and process stability are also widely viewed as approaching those of leading suppliers, following sustained investment and recruitment of external experts. According to Counterpoint Research, YMTC’s NAND market share by shipments reached 10% for the first time in the first quarter of last year and climbed to 13% in the third quarter, up 4 percentage points year-on-year—close to Micron’s 14% share, which ranks fourth globally.
CXMT’s expansion into memory beyond DRAM intersects with Huawei’s efforts to secure HBM amid U.S. export controls. Since the second half of last year, CXMT has supplied HBM3 samples to Huawei and other major Chinese AI chip designers, with expectations of transitioning to mass production this year and reaching HBM3E-level technology next year. A CXMT insider said that yields in the initial HBM3 supply phase are likely to hover around 50% due to wafer defects, with subsequent yield improvement emerging as a key variable.
As equipment localization accelerates, related markets are growing in tandem. Revenue at China’s largest semiconductor equipment maker, NAURA Technology Group, rose steadily to about $3.09 billion in 2023, $4.18 billion in 2024, and $4.20 billion in 2025. Market research firm QYResearch noted that NAURA has contributed to raising localization rates to roughly 70% by supplying etching and chemical vapor deposition (CVD) tools during the expansion of 28-nanometer process lines.
Capital-Light Investment Strengthens Price Competitiveness
Industry observers expect Chinese memory makers’ catch-up pace to accelerate further as both CXMT and YMTC pursue initial public offerings this year. CXMT is targeting a listing on Shanghai’s STAR Market in the first half. Its valuation is being discussed at up to $42 billion, and if the IPO proceeds as planned, it could raise as much as $4.13 billion in cash. For a company whose expansion has been constrained by funding limits, such a large IPO could mark a turning point in scaling production capacity.
CXMT’s current output provides a sense of where the impact could materialize. Based on last year’s production, its DRAM output is estimated at roughly 200,000 wafers per month—about 10% of global DRAM wafer capacity—translating to around 4% market share by revenue. The company plans to expand capacity to 300,000 wafers per month by the end of this year and beyond 400,000 wafers thereafter using IPO proceeds. Depending on the timing of capital expenditures, output could rise sharply in a short period.
This feeds into more optimistic market-share projections. Samsung’s commodity DRAM output is estimated at about 500,000 wafers per month, SK hynix at roughly 395,000, and Micron around 295,000. If CXMT successfully secures funding and scales production as planned, the gap with the three incumbent memory giants in commodity DRAM would narrow quickly. Given CXMT’s strategy of expanding DRAM supply on the back of price competitiveness, higher volumes are seen as likely to translate directly into greater market presence.
CXMT already recorded its first-ever provisional net profit since its founding in 2016 during last year’s memory upcycle, posting about $490 million in earnings, a sharp rebound from a net loss of $1.26 billion in 2024. With profitability improving even before fundraising, an IPO infusion would allow capacity expansion without heavy financial strain. This underpins expectations that CXMT’s equipment build-out could lead to increased low-priced supply, ultimately influencing DRAM pricing trends and the overall supply-demand balance.