Will Canada’s new auto strategy put as many EVs on the road as Carney says?

Despite widespread approval from provinces and auto manufacturers, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s auto plan might not accelerate the transition to electric vehicles as fast as he says. 

On Thursday, Carney ended Canada’s electric vehicle mandate, resumed purchase incentives and said higher standards for fuel efficiency were coming. Ontario and Alberta’s premiers said they were both “pleased” and car manufacturers said the move provided “welcome policy stability.”

Carney says his government expects EVs to hit 75 per cent of new car purchases in 2035 without a sales mandate.

Some climate change experts not only doubt this — but say the new strategy undermines Canada’s climate goals.

“This policy is giving in way too much,” said Simon Donner, a climate scientist and University of British Columbia professor, in an interview with CBC Radio’s The House.

Transportation is one of the most polluting sectors in the country, behind oil and gas production. Canada won’t reach its climate targets, and especially net-zero emission targets, if most drivers don’t switch to low- or no-emission vehicles, those experts say.

For decades, greenhouse gas emissions from cars, SUVs and trucks have been on the rise. 

One policy aimed at reducing those emissions was the consumer carbon tax.

On his first day in office, Carney eliminated that tax — which he said had become too divisive. It wouldn’t be the last Trudeau-era policy he’d slash.

Since then, Carney weakened a commitment to implement an oil and gas emissions cap and abandoned Trudeau’s promise to plant two billion trees. He also agreed to greenlight a possible Alberta-backed bitumen pipeline to British Columbia’s coast.

The prime minister was asked Thursday if he still considered himself a leader on climate change.

“Absolutely. I consider Canada a leader on climate change and on focusing on climate change results and solutions,” Carney said.

The NDP found those comments hard to stomach. 

“I think the facts completely belie that,” interim NDP Leader Don Davies said. “He’s eliminated the carbon tax, he eliminated the EV targets … he’s weakened environmental standards in Alberta and he’s promoting a bitumen pipeline to the West Coast.

“I don’t know how anybody could call themselves a leader on the climate with a record like that.”

Carney’s climate commitments a ‘joke’: May

“It is an absolute joke for the prime minister to claim that Canada has any pretense of being a climate leader,” Green Party Leader Elizabeth May said. “We are still a climate laggard.” 

Carney, who owned an electric vehicle before taking office, defended his government’s decisions.

“We are dead focused on results, getting emissions down, making major investments and in the process of creating more jobs for Canadians and a better future,” he said.

Under the old Trudeau-era EV mandate, auto manufacturers were supposed to achieve incremental EV sales targets. And by 2035, every new passenger car sold in Canada was supposed to be either electric or a plug-in hybrid.

In its place, Carney intends to strengthen the country’s tailpipe pollution standards, in addition to five years of EV rebates. The Carney government is promising those standards would double vehicle efficiency and lead to three-in-four cars being battery powered.

Donner, who in addition to his academic work served as the federal government’s top climate adviser through the independent Net-Zero Advisory Body, is skeptical.

“[The standard] doesn’t guarantee we are going to have more EVs being sold,” Donner said. “It’s going to depend on how they negotiate the standard.”

More questions than answers 

The prime minister said Thursday the new tailpipe emission standard was modelled on “grams per mile” and would result in a “57 per cent reduction” in the amount of carbon pollution from cars. 

CBC News asked to see the modelling that backs up that claim. 

At a technical briefing, public servants with the federal government, who spoke on the basis they not be identified, admitted that they couldn’t release detailed data to support this new policy — the modelling is still in the works. Officials said they intend to finalize these regulations later this year.

Researchers and policy experts tell CBC News that the success of Carney’s new EV policy depends on the strength of the tailpipe emissions standard. They fear the same companies that lobbied to get rid of the EV mandate, Ford, General Motors, Honda, Stellantis and Toyota, might oppose the new rules.

The Canadian Climate Institute said in terms of finding policy signals that will push people toward environmentally friendly changes, “perfect is the enemy of good.” The climate change policy organization notes that while industry and environmentalists likely have issues with the auto plan, it still offers a path forward.

“If you’re really into deep [emission] reductions you don’t like [it],” said Dave Sawyer, principal economist at the Canadian Climate Institute. “If you’re industry, you’re going to grumble because you have costs you don’t love. But it’s a really balanced approach, it seems.”