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Petition signings and packed town halls haven’t swayed a vast majority of Albertans toward separating from Canada, new data suggests.
A poll released Monday by the Angus Reid Institute found that 65 per cent of the 979 Albertans surveyed say they would either vote to stay in Canada or lean toward voting that way if a referendum on Alberta separation were held today, while 29 per cent say they would vote or lean toward voting to leave.
Of the two-thirds that say they want to remain in Canada, 57 per cent said they would definitely vote to stay, while eight per cent say they would lean toward voting to stay.
Meanwhile, eight per cent of those in favour of separation would definitely vote to leave, while 21 per cent would lean toward vote to leave.
Five per cent of respondents said they still weren’t sure.
Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, says the significant chunk of respondents that would lean toward voting to leave — representing about one in five Albertans — is “really going to be where the heart and soul of the fight for Alberta sovereignty versus Alberta remaining [in Canada] will boil down.”
“In the end, do they tip all the way over into definitely voting to leave, or do they lean back and tip back to the stay side?”
Another poll, conducted by Pollara Strategic Insights last December, suggested that one in five Albertans would vote to separate.
The latest poll by Angus Reid was conducted through an online survey from Feb. 2 to 6.
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Kurl pointed to the “political division” within the United Conservative Party (UCP) on the issue of separation when compared to Alberta NDP voters, 93 per cent of whom are in favour of remaining in Canada, according to the poll.
“The UCP base is interesting because it is much more divided,” Kurl said.
Of the respondents who identified as UCP voters, 41 per cent lean toward leaving, while 16 per cent say they would definitely vote to leave Canada.
Meanwhile, 26 per cent of those who identify as UCP voters say they would definitely vote to stay.
“The number of UCP voters who say that they would definitely vote to stay actually outnumbers those who say they would definitely vote to leave,” Kurl said.
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Among the most convincing arguments for separation were the perception Alberta is not getting as much from Canada as it gives, and the idea that an independent Alberta could have complete control of its natural resources, the poll found.
Meanwhile, for those who would stay, economic challenges presented by Alberta becoming an independent nation, coupled with a strong sense of Canadian identity, were among the top reasons why respondents indicated they would want to stay in Canada.
When asked — in the event Albertans voted to leave Confederation — whether they would stay in the province, 74 per cent of respondents said they would move to another province or territory in Canada, while 23 per cent said they would stay in an independent Alberta.
The majority of Albertans in favour of remaining in Canada say a convincing reason to stay is the potential for the United States to annex an independent Alberta.
“There is very little appetite among Albertans to become American,” Kurl said.
“You’ve even got a majority [of all survey respondents], just over half, who think that there would be attempts at military persuasion, or military means,” Kurl said, referring to the poll’s findings.
The Alberta independence petition launched last month by Alberta Prosperity Project CEO Mitch Sylvestre needs close to 178,000 signatures by May 2 to trigger a referendum on separation from Canada.
In an interview with CBC’s Ian Hanomansing, Sylvestre was not willing to share the current number of signatures, but expressed that he is confident the petition will succeed.
“I don’t believe we’re going to have any problem reaching the 177,000 threshold,” he said. “The referendum will happen.”
Separation petition signing events have been held across Alberta, with more planned in the coming days. That includes multiple upcoming events in Calgary and Edmonton, as well as many in the province’s smaller communities.
The “Forever Canadian” petition, launched last year in a bid to keep Alberta as part of the country, was verified as successful by Elections Alberta after receiving more than 400,000 signatures.
The Angus Reid Institute self-commissioned and paid for this poll, which was conducted through an online survey from Feb. 2 to 6, 2026. The poll surveyed a sample of 979 Albertan adults, randomly drawn from an online panel consisting of Canadians across the country. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults across Canada according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on Statistics Canada data. As an online survey, a margin of error does not apply. However, the margin of error for a comparable probability sample would be +/- three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.