South Korea could face up to 197 trillion won ($136 billion) in cumulative economic losses over the next decade if it approves the overseas transfer of its detailed national map data without robust safeguards, according to a new academic study presented Tuesday.
The projection comes at a critical moment as South Korea’s government prepares to decide on long-pending applications from Google and Apple to export 1:5,000 base map data, a granular geographic dataset that includes detailed building outlines and road networks used in navigation, logistics and mobility platforms. Google says access to the 1:5,000 base map data is required to provide full walking and driving directions in Korea, which are currently unavailable on Google Maps.
The data is already available domestically, but cross-border transfer is tightly regulated due to national security and economic policy concerns.
The analysis, shared at a forum hosted by the Korea Spatial Information Society in Seoul, was conducted by Jung Jin-do, a professor of urban policy at the Korea National University of Education.
Jung’s projection is based on modeling that tracks how increased reliance on foreign platforms might affect Korean industries over time. The estimated losses, spanning 2026 to 2035, range from 150.7 trillion won to 197.4 trillion won, depending on how deeply foreign services penetrate local markets. These losses are not limited to direct revenue, but include ripple effects across sectors such as transportation, construction, tourism and retail.
A major driver of the projected cost is the steady outflow of royalty payments for use of foreign mapping tools, such as application programming interfaces that developers rely on for location-based services. Jung estimates these outflows could reach as much as 14.25 trillion won per year in the worst-case scenario.
“The longer the dependency grows, the harder it becomes to reverse,” Jung said. “Without enforceable rules to ensure fair competition and compatibility between platforms, Korean firms risk being locked into systems they can’t control or replace.”
To prevent long-term structural dependence, Jung urged the government to set clear policy conditions before allowing any data exports. These include mandating the use of standardized APIs to preserve user choice and enforcing platform competition rules.
Regulatory review of Google and Apple requests is currently underway. The National Geographic Information Institute has requested that both firms submit additional documentation by Feb. 5. According to ETNews, Korean officials visited the companies’ US headquarters last week to discuss security protocols and data handling practices.
mjh@heraldcorp.com